FND-STA-Probability
Probability
Keywords: Event probabilities from first principles, probabilites from total enumeration (with R examples)
Contents
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Abstract
Probability - with R exercises
This unit ...
Prerequisites
You need the following preparation before beginning this unit. If you are not familiar with this material from courses you took previously, you need to prepare yourself from other information sources:
- Probability: event, probability, hypothesis and significance.
You need to complete the following units before beginning this one:
Objectives
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Outcomes
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Deliverables
- Time management: Before you begin, estimate how long it will take you to complete this unit. Then, record in your course journal: the number of hours you estimated, the number of hours you worked on the unit, and the amount of time that passed between start and completion of this unit.
- Journal: Document your progress in your Course Journal. Some tasks may ask you to include specific items in your journal. Don't overlook these.
- Insights: If you find something particularly noteworthy about this unit, make a note in your insights! page.
Evaluation
Evaluation: NA
- This unit is not evaluated for course marks.
Contents
Nothing seems certain in biology so we are always in the business of arguing from probabilities. By doing so, we often focus only on our observations and overlook that a probability has two components: an event, and a set of alternative events.
Let me give you an example: I roll a fair[1], six-sided die. You see five dots on top. I ask you: what was the probability of throwing a "5"? You answer: 1/6, because you remember from highschool that that is the correct answer. But then I say: now look closely at the die. You pick it up and you see five dots on one side. The next side says 5, the third side has the word five engraved on it, the fourth side shows 五, the next side has four vertical lines, and a fifth one crossing them out. The next side show a s blue pentagon, and the last side the letter E, the fifth letter of the alphabet. Each of these represnts the concept 5 in some way. At that moment you understand that you know nothing about the probability of an event, if you do not know the possible alternative outcomes.
Now this is a problem. Because in general, we have no way of knowing all possible outcomes in biology.
Further reading, links and resources
Notes
- ↑ "Fair" mains: each side has the same likelihood of lying on top after a throw.
Self-evaluation
If in doubt, ask! If anything about this learning unit is not clear to you, do not proceed blindly but ask for clarification. Post your question on the course mailing list: others are likely to have similar problems. Or send an email to your instructor.
About ...
Author:
- Boris Steipe <boris.steipe@utoronto.ca>
Created:
- 2017-08-05
Modified:
- 2017-08-05
Version:
- 0.1
Version history:
- 0.1 First stub
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